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5
Hot Tips for Trading Online
By Alpesh B Patel
(25th January 2002)
Is
there anyone left in the UK who does not have an e-brokerage account
or at least know someone who has one? Certainly you'll find it difficult
to find any British Asian who doesn't at least know someone who
trades online. Online trading looks set to become as common as having
a mortgage.
Low
commissions are a good reason for many to trade online. But according
to the Barber study it appears that those trading offline tend to
beat the market by about 2% per annum, yet when they go online they
suffer in their returns - lagging the market by 3% annually. This
despite the lower commission costs.
One
major cause of the fall off in performance is that in going online,
traders tend to trade more actively. According
to psychologists, humans have a tendency to be overconfident in
their own abilities and their knowledge. They tend to attribute
any success to their own abilities even when that is not warranted.
Remember the old market saying, "don't mistake a bull market
for skill." The recent bull market is partly to blame for this
overconfidence.
Also
leading to overconfidence is the availability of information, of
which there is in abundance online. The more information you give
someone the more overconfident they are likely to become. The illusion
of knowledge leads to the illusion of control for the online trader.
Overconfidence leads to more speculative trading without proper
detailed analysis and that leads to greater losses and worse online
trading performance.
Five
Hot Tips
These
are some tips to help you avoid the trap:
Risk
Management: On a detailed analysis of the stock you plan
to trade in, is the upside potential greater than the downside risk
by a ratio of at least 2:1? If for instance you bought 100 shares
of XYZ at 1000p, expecting a rise to 1200p, it would not be wise
to say you will stay with the trade even if the stock hits 400p.
In other words, how high do you expect it to go, and how low could
it go before you knew it was not going to turnaround and you had
better exit?
Objectivity:
Maintaining an objective view about a trade is essential to being
able to exit without 'psychological' difficulties. Do not become
attached to a stock. The key issue is one of probability; is the
expected gain on the upside greater than that on the downside?
Stop
Losses: Have you set an exact price level at which you
are not willing to accept further losses and will exit? This stop-loss
cannot be too close to the price where you entered your position;
otherwise even a small down move may trigger your stop loss and
cause you to exit. On the other hand it cannot be too far from your
entry price level otherwise you may lose all your investment before
deciding to exit.
Discipline:
Having formed a trading plan, stick to it! It is surprising how
many traders ignore their exit levels when the time comes to pull
the trigger because their mind comes up with a hundred reasons not
to exit.
If
you want to know what makes
good and bad companies? Then
go and listen to their executives speak and compare their rhetoric
to their share prices.
Believe
in the power of prayer
In
Germany online trading comes with a spiritual health warning with
Evangelical churches concerned about the search of quick profits.
In my experience there is no conflict between online trading and
spirituality - most online traders pray like crazy!
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