CAN
YOU PICK A FUTURE PROPERTY 'HOTSPOT'?
By Dominic Moody (March 2005)
It's
a story that is recounted in thousands of dinner parties and barbecues
up and down the country every weekend. It usually begins three or
four years ago with a young couple looking for an affordable first
home. They move into a cheap but slightly down-at-heel area and
likeminded couples follow suit. Bars and restaurants open up to
cater to the new inhabitants of the area, property prices start
to rise and before you know it, our hero and heroine find themselves
living in a minor hotspot with a home that has doubled in value.
For
those who've bought into an area that has stayed resolutely down-at-heel,
such tales tend grate on the ear - although such places these days
are few and far between. For housebuyers in search of an inflation-beating
property investment on the other hand, they're the stuff of legend.
And the big question that keen listeners will be asking themselves
is: How on earth do I buy into a future hotspot?
"That's
probably the single most difficult second guess you can make,"
says estate agent Graham Harris. As a professional with several
decades' experience of watching the London property market and a
former president of the National Association of Estate Agents, Harris
is an old hand at the game of spotting future hotspots. But
even he admits that when it comes down to it, backing a property
winner is as tricky as predicting which nag will be first past the
post at the Grand National.
"It's
often the case that these things happen by chance and everybody
is caught by surprise," he says. "Either that, or it's
so obvious that you'll kick yourself for not noticing it earlier."
So
does it all happen by chance? "No, there are market readers,
people who can see what's going to happen and get in ahead of the
game," he says. "Sometimes they can even create an up-and-coming
area by investing in services or amenities.
"Tube
lines and transport links can hugely change the nature of an area
and you could also add trendiness to the equation. Some areas might
not appear too appealing at first sight, but if it's lively with
lots going on, people will want to move closer to it."
Another
factor that can work in a place's favour is the nature of its building
stock. Warehouses might lend themselves quite nicely to residential
conversion.
And
which other factors are likely to create an area that's on the up?
According to a Bradford & Bingley Estate Agents' (BBEA) report,
there are at least four indicators to look for.
INDICATORS
First,
a future hotspot is likely to be within the catchment area of good
schools. Some estate agents swear by the magical effect of the school
league tables and it's certainly true that parents will pay a premium
to live within a select catchment area. Whether you can predict
a future league-table topping school is, of course, another matter.
Second,
fast-selling areas are often visually appealing, according to the
BBEA - particularly out-of-town areas that appeal to jaded city
dwellers after a rural bolthole.
Third,
good road and rail links invariably boost property values in their
immediate area, especially if they mean that the area is now within
commuting distance of big employers or urban centres. For the best
chance of success, make sure you know what's going on with your
area's structural plan, and scan the local press for news of big
planning decisions.
Similarly,
keep an eye out for news of big employers moving into an area. A
government department or a big national headquarters could bring
thousands of new employees with it - and they'll be looking to buy
as close to work as possible. To get ahead of the game, find out
who your local council is trying to tempt to the area, and where
they might go.
But
bear in mind that as with any type of speculation - whether on the
stock exchange or down at the dog track - things don't always turn
out the way you expect them to.
"It's
a very, very difficult business to guess," says Graham Harris.
"You've got to be a certain type to do it. Pioneers who buy
into an area before it's popular can make lots of money, but it
can also be very costly. What goes up can also come down."
If
you're really determined to introduce a little speculation into
your home-buying activities, Harris has what could be the best piece
of advice you'll get.
"My
own personal advice would be to pick somewhere you'd be happy to
live," he says. "If it's good for you, it's likely to
be good for people like you - and that could mean more people moving
into the area and boosting prices."
Even
if those prices don't rise, at least you'll be somewhere you want
to be - which may well be the most important thing in the final
analysis.
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